Is NU the worst?
earlier this week it dawned on me that this Wildcats team was actually ranked earlier in the season. i know it was a big deal when it happened, but it seems like so long ago that i'd forgotten. in the poll released in week 8 (December 28) the Associated Press voters collectively determined that Northwestern was the 25th best team in the country. remarkable.
as the season has fallen apart in February, i started to wonder whether NU is the worst team that was ranked at some point this year. using some RPI numbers along with overall/conference records, i've put together NU's competition:
Cincinnati
16-13 overall, 7-10 in second-best conference
RPI: 65
Best wins: Vanderbilt (13), Maryland(20), UConn twice(49)
Worst losses: @St John's (79), @South Florida (67)
Worst home loss: Marquette (47)
Texas Tech
16-13 overall, 4-11 in best conference
RPI: 66
Best wins: Oklahoma State (27), UTEP (44), Washington (55)
Worst losses: @Nebraska (158), @Wichita State (50)
Worst home loss: Missouri (31)
North Carolina
16-14 overall, 5-10 in third-best conference
RPI: 83
Best wins: Michigan State (24), Ohio State (28), @Wake Forest (34)
Worst losses: Virginia (122), @BC (99), @Charleston (89)
Miami
18-11, 4-11 in third-best conference
RPI: 110
Best wins: Wake Forest (34), Georgia Tech (37), Virginia Tech (53)
Worst losses: @Virginia (122), NC State (109)
compare all those to:
Northwestern
19-11, 7-10 in fifth-best conference
RPI: 106
Best wins: Purdue (11), Notre Dame (61), Illinois (72)
Worst losses: @Iowa (193), Penn State (190), @Penn State (190)
sure, Texas Tech's conference record is terrible, but all those losses are to top 50 teams. Cincinnati was on the bubble until recently. North Carolina's fall has been precipitous, but they still have three very nice wins.
Miami has not beaten a tournament lock; NU has the win over Purdue. none of the other schools have anything close to the terrible losses that NU has. it's also worth noting that Northwestern's fifth best win (NC State) is Miami's second-worst loss, so that doesn't help. but as awful as Northwestern has been on the road, Miami has actually been worse. NU only has the two road wins at Michigan and NC State, but Miami's road wins are limited to 5-22 Stetson and 6-22 Pepperdine. i think it's a tough call between Northwestern and Miami.
meanwhile, the Wildcats close the regular season @ Indiana this weekend. the Hoosiers have lost 11 in a row by an average margin of 17. let's hope IU doesn't suddenly get their shit together.
as the season has fallen apart in February, i started to wonder whether NU is the worst team that was ranked at some point this year. using some RPI numbers along with overall/conference records, i've put together NU's competition:
Cincinnati
16-13 overall, 7-10 in second-best conference
RPI: 65
Best wins: Vanderbilt (13), Maryland(20), UConn twice(49)
Worst losses: @St John's (79), @South Florida (67)
Worst home loss: Marquette (47)
Texas Tech
16-13 overall, 4-11 in best conference
RPI: 66
Best wins: Oklahoma State (27), UTEP (44), Washington (55)
Worst losses: @Nebraska (158), @Wichita State (50)
Worst home loss: Missouri (31)
North Carolina
16-14 overall, 5-10 in third-best conference
RPI: 83
Best wins: Michigan State (24), Ohio State (28), @Wake Forest (34)
Worst losses: Virginia (122), @BC (99), @Charleston (89)
Miami
18-11, 4-11 in third-best conference
RPI: 110
Best wins: Wake Forest (34), Georgia Tech (37), Virginia Tech (53)
Worst losses: @Virginia (122), NC State (109)
compare all those to:
Northwestern
19-11, 7-10 in fifth-best conference
RPI: 106
Best wins: Purdue (11), Notre Dame (61), Illinois (72)
Worst losses: @Iowa (193), Penn State (190), @Penn State (190)
sure, Texas Tech's conference record is terrible, but all those losses are to top 50 teams. Cincinnati was on the bubble until recently. North Carolina's fall has been precipitous, but they still have three very nice wins.
Miami has not beaten a tournament lock; NU has the win over Purdue. none of the other schools have anything close to the terrible losses that NU has. it's also worth noting that Northwestern's fifth best win (NC State) is Miami's second-worst loss, so that doesn't help. but as awful as Northwestern has been on the road, Miami has actually been worse. NU only has the two road wins at Michigan and NC State, but Miami's road wins are limited to 5-22 Stetson and 6-22 Pepperdine. i think it's a tough call between Northwestern and Miami.
meanwhile, the Wildcats close the regular season @ Indiana this weekend. the Hoosiers have lost 11 in a row by an average margin of 17. let's hope IU doesn't suddenly get their shit together.
posted by Fire Bill Carmody at
11:59 AM
4 Comments:
michigan was ranked like 13th earlier this year, portland was ranked earlier in the year... nu's not the worst.
@Rodger, i can't believe i forgot to mention the biggest caveat: i disregarded the first three weeks of the polls. that should wipe out at least some of the preseason bias. so by not factoring in November, that takes out Louisville, Portland, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Minnesota, and Michigan.
Fair enough, because OU and Michigan are much worse. And I would submit that North Carolina is too, just because they were ranked SO high at the start of the season.
i'm starting to cross over to your side of the street
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